Weaker rand could bring container traffic growth

A weaker rand could support containerised exports, says Jonathan Horn, MD of Maersk Line South Africa. If the rand remains at around R8.50 to the US dollar, the total growth of containerised exports could reach “into the high single digits” during the course of the year, he says. “Commodities make up approximately 35% of SA’s containerised exports,” says Horn, “and in the third quarter of last year, mining production decreased by 13% compared to the same period in 2011.” Positive developments on other fronts are beginning to counterbalance the negative trend. For example, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 7% to 8% this year. “We’re less optimistic about Europe, though, with GDP decline in the fourth quarter of 2012, as well as retail sales and industrial production continuing to decline,” he says, “but we do see encouraging signs in the US with consumer sentiment improving.” While the situation looks brighter for exports, Maersk believes the same can’t be said for imports. “The flat trend in the second half of 2012 bucked all trends,” says Matthew Conroy, Maersk SA’s trade and marketing manager. While inflation remains relatively low at 5.4%, consumers have to tighten their belts as prices of essential goods and services rise, demand for imports is likely to remain below par. Horn nevertheless feels that the South African market will remain competitive on the whole. With respectable growth expected in 2013, it’s a case of “steady as she goes” for the local container industry.