US won’t lead world out of recession – logistics expert

The logistics industry more than any other industry felt the full brunt of the recession, says Roslyn Wilson, author of the American State of Logistics survey. Speaking via video link from America at the launch of the South African 7th State of Logistics survey, she said the cost of logistics as a percentage of GDP declined almost $300 billion during the recession. “After rising almost 50% in the lead up to the recession, costs fell dramatically,” she said. The total cost of logistics fell to 7.7% of GDP, the lowest ever recorded since the survey began some 20 years ago in America. “Retailers responded to the drop in consumer spending by carrying less inventory so as not to be caught in the predicament of 2009. Manufacturers followed the lead ordering processes with suppliers following suit and holding back on inventory. “Inventory recovery has already started, which is a welcome sign for this segment, however it will be well into 2011 before we even begin to see improvement in the logistics industry.” Wilson said much had been done in the US to improve the supply chain in an effort to come out of the recession better and stronger, with many lessons having been learnt. She said with all modes of transport having experienced double-digit losses in 2009, much was expected from 2010, which showed strong signs of recovery only to slow down in the second part of the year. “More than 1400 carriers entered bankruptcy in the recession and rates remain depressed. We believe as the economy strengthens in 2011, tight capacity constraints will drive rates up. She said with a 2.3% growth expected for the US economy there was still a long road before total recovery ahead. “The US is not really going to lead the world out of the recession. Each country and region is going to have to correct things in their economies. We will come out a little stronger, but we