THE TRADE activity index (TAI) of the Sacob/Standard Bank SA trade management indices (SATMI) was 46 in August, compared to 47 in July. “Trading conditions were seen as depressed,” said the report, “with 54% of our respondents reporting negative trading circumstances. “This is somewhat surprising given the loosening of monetary policy, prospects of further interest rate cuts in due course and fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts.” Overall conditions are seen as being tough, with the index recording a value below the critical break-point of 50. “Evidence of a general weakness in the economy can be observed in very sluggish GDP growth numbers for Q2, said the report, “and declining manufacturing production in the same quarter.” The trade expectations index (TEI) - forecasting trade conditions six months down the line - improved from 53 in July to 55 in August. “This reflects a cautious attitude,” said the report. “Although conditions are expected to improve, the index value is still below values calculated for the early part of the year.” A turn-around in economic confidence has not yet been observed in the SATMI data.
