THE LATEST analysis of SA trade with the three Chinas reveals few major surprises. This is despite fears that SA's political switch from recognition of Taiwan to a diplomatic tie-up with Mainland China could throw a big spanner in the SA/Taiwan trade relationship.
While the big double-digit percentage increases in the latest chart belong to exports to China, these base figures still lag far behind the other two Chinas.
Highlighting the economic background behind these latest available trade statistics, Liz Whitehouse of Whitehouse & Associates, pointed to the recovery from the Asian crisis of 1998 as being the main driving force in the figures.
The January to November 1999 trade statistics reflect a recovery in SA's trade with Asia, she said. This after a 12% decline recorded during 1998 on the back of that crisis.
Exports to Taiwan, China and Hong Kong are no exception. The January to July 1999 statistics reflect a good increase in exports to all three countries - +13%, +26% and +10% respectively.
Imports from Taiwan and Hong Kong have declined - -8% and -16% respectively - while those from China went up by 9%. But, said Whitehouse, the overall higher cost of imports due to a weaker rand exchange rate has to be a major factor in this pattern - and the relative newness of Mainland China as a market may still add a touch of extra drive.
If the July growth rates are extrapolated through to December, overall trade with these three countries will show a strong recovery. However, as Whitehouse pointed-out, only the figures for Mainland China will reach the levels achieved in 1997.
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