Swaziland on its way to 'worst performing economy' status

Swaziland will trade places with Sudan as the world’s worst performing economy by 2014, but imports into Swaziland are not likely to be affected. While the economy is in a tailspin according to an IMF report released this month, privileged Swazis with whom the country’s wealth is concentrated will continue spending. Swaziland imports up to 90% of its goods and services from SA. While government runs up a debt that will represent a majority of GDP in five years, imports are expected to be stable, growing from a modest but not negative one to three percent annually through 2017. Even as the Swaziland economy persistently declines over the next five years, the IMF sees no drop in the demand for oil, all of which is imported from SA. Swaziland’s 2012 GDP of R112 billion (US $12.85 billion) was down 3% from last year when it was R115 billion (US $13.23 billion), and is expected to be similar at R111 billion (US $12.72 billion) in 2013. Sudan’s 2013 GDP growth will also be negative and worse by 0.04% than Swaziland, but will improve into positive growth in 2014. Meanwhile, Swaziland is not expected to see growth higher than a quarter of a percentage point per annum through the end of IMF’s review period in 2017. Whatever recovery other countries enjoy from the end of the global recession, it will not touch Swaziland, the IMF says. Moribund FDI and high unemployment will ensure that government revenues drop from 40% of GDP in 2012 to 32% of GDP in 2017. Meanwhile, government spending will continue to rise.