Rising seafreight volumes run contrary to global trend

The SA seafreight market is getting close to the peak of the peak, according to a forwarding industry spokesman, speaking on October 7. “In the January to August period, the Durban port stats (for about 80% of the SA total) showed that Durban’s containerised cargo volumes in 2010 were well up on the same period in 2009 – but still behind the first eightmonth total for 2008,” Dave Watts, maritime consultant of the SA Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff), told FTW. The port handled 1.63-million TEUs in that period; 1.52-m in 2009; but 1.74-m in 2008. That’s the running equivalent of 203 750/month. However, the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) port figures for September (just released) show that the total jumped to 232 411 in the month – some 28 661 TEUs/month more than the 8-month running average. “And,” said Watts, “the expectations yesterday (October 6) for the following eight days was for 45 000-TEUs compared to last year’s Oct 6 expectation of 34 000. That’s a total of about 11 000 more – or 1 375-a-day more – than a year ago.” It’s also utterly contrary to the global feelings. The container shipping industry should brace itself for a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, as inventory re-stocking and empty container movements slow, according to the “Counting Containers” report from international analysts, the Macquarie Group. The report explains that fourth-quarter volumes are normally around 0.7% up on the third quarter, but this year the analyst said it expected them to be lower. “We estimate that global container throughput increased by 16%, year-onyear, in the third quarter 2010,” said the Macquarie report, “and will be 12% up year-on-year in the fourth.” “But these feelings must mostly relate to Far East- Europe and Far East-North America trades, because they certainly don’t apply to the Far East-SA route,” said a spokesman for a Far Eastern carrier. He reckoned that SA exports were marginally lower in September, but imports were 13.6% up month-on-month. Ron Frick, MD of DAL Agency, agreed when interviewed about trade on the Europe-SA sea route. “I’m as bullish as ever,” he told FTW. Exports from SA, he added, are easing off a little – but that’s a usual seasonal event. “But our southbound ships are all booked a week in advance,” Frick said.