Recession turns trends upside down

The South African express and courier industry has managed to shake off the dust of the 2009 economic meltdown as volumes have returned to pre-recessionary times. According to Garry Marshall, executive director of the South African Express Parcel Association (Saepa), the industry has had a rough time the past three years, but it would seem that the worst is finally over. “We have recovered to the point that our volumes are now the same as they were at the time the recession started,” he told FTW. “Speaking to our members it is still up and down at times, but the industry is in a much better situation than it was a few months ago.” One of the consequences of the recession is, however, the lack of predictability, said Marshall. “One used to know and be able to predict the good months and the bad months, but the predictability has gone out of the business. Trends have been turned upside down and it has become very difficult to predict what to expect.” Despite this, the outlook for the next few months is extremely positive. “The market has picked up and volumes are increasing – a trend we hope to see continue,” he said. “Generally speaking there seems to have been a reconfiguration of supply chains with more and more people using the express and courier market as a standard method of moving their goods.” Add to that the increased movement of goods from consumer to consumer as well as from business to consumer and the express industry seems to be heading for more good times. “Express and courier services are now more accessible than they have ever been,” said Marshall. “They have also become more affordable – so it is no longer perceived as this very expensive option only to be used in cases of emergency.” According to Marshall more people are using express services as they are gradually becoming a standard supply chain method of transporting. “Express and courier services have always been based on reliability and fast delivery, but now one can add the convenience factor to it as well. Historically it was viewed as expensive and only for immediate deliveries, but all of that has changed.” All of this has been underscored by a report by the Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) that found that overnight deliveries for companies and individuals are considered to be a vital part of a modern economy. According to Marshall, the variety of options available in the express package is leading to more dependence on this mode of transport. “One can go from the first flight option to that of late next day or even the option of guaranteed within the next three days. All these come in with different price options. Of course the slower it gets the cheaper the price, but it is no longer the option for emergency use.” The automotive industry has for years been using the express and courier market to serve its needs, something more business is starting to incorporate. “Technology has played an important role because as software has improved so has the tracking process and one can today see exactly where your parcel is at any given time. One can also receive a parcel no matter where you are in the world. It is a guaranteed service that is not necessarily the most expensive option any more,” said Marshall.