Renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East is forcing commercial shipping lines to reassess the high-stakes risk of transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is tested on the water.
“We would expect the US to blockade Iran and Iran to continue blockading the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ambrey director of risk analytics Robert Peters during a Risk on the Radar podcast discussion with Managing Director Nick Maddalena.
He noted the risk to commercial operators, with Iran targeting civilian shipping trying to exit the Strait of Hormuz. Although naval forces are actively engaged in the area, the threat remains severe, he said.
Vessels transiting the area should monitor for suspicious objects, particularly as a significant number of unmanned systems have been sighted, and report these to the authorities, Peters said.
Any easing of risk is unlikely to be immediate. The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran provides for a 60-day negotiation period towards a fuller peace agreement, meaning formal diplomatic talks could take at least two months to produce a meaningful outcome, he said.
Despite these hostile conditions, commercial vessels are still transiting the vital chokepoint, driven by varying operational mandates.
Some operators were still prepared to transit the Strait with additional support, but traffic levels would depend on each company’s risk tolerance and the position of its underwriters, Peters said.
The risk to commercial shipping was highlighted again on Tuesday, when MSC confirmed that one of its container ships, the MSC Sariska V, had been struck by two projectiles while departing the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr. “The first hit while the pilot was on board as the vessel departed from port and a second impacted the crew area soon afterwards,” MSC said.
“MSC is deeply concerned by these unprovoked attacks and the risk they create for its innocent seafarers, and essential maritime trade in the region.”
© Now Media. This content, including images, is protected by copyright and may not be copied, reused, adapted or republished without permission. If you would like to discuss content-sharing or cooperation opportunities, please contact: editor@freightnews.co.za.
