The International Maritime Organization looks less likely to bring its climate debate to the hard stop feared since October, Declan Bush has reported for Lloyd’s List from the 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC).
And yet, although a hard stop appears to be unlikely, “the outlook is still bad for global greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations to spur decarbonisation”.
Attending MEPC84 in London, he wrote on the last day of the gathering, April 30, that it was widely feared that the administration of President Donald Trump, a known climate change denialist, would lead the US to block the already delayed vote on the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) from proceeding.
Sceptical allies of the US position on global carbon pricing and supportive of flexibility, would probably follow suit, namely China, Saudi Arabia and Argentina.
Most likely it would involve the ‘cautious bloc’ consisting of Brazil and India.
An NZF vote walkout of this nature would essentially “kill off the plan”, Bush said.
However, it was unlikely, he added.
“Instead, things look more normal: the tone is more collegiate, the statements vaguer, and the point and direction of it all harder to discern.”
To say that MEPC84 had resulted in the NZF could be kicked further down the road, was an understatement, Bush argued.
“This is normal for an MEPC without a clear decision point; no need to fight over the tough stuff until you absolutely must.
“Countries mostly agreed that they should convene further meetings to find a way forward before the next big vote in October to find a way forward.”
No matter how it’s looked at, he said the NZF debate would go ahead but “with no obvious compromise in sight”.
“Those in the 'Yes' camp won’t stand for a huge, unwieldy regulation that doesn’t do anything for the climate, which they argue would be the result of Liberia’s tax-free alternative plan.”
What seems certain is that the US and Saudi Arabia are resolutely sticking to their argument of “no carbon taxes under any circumstances”.
So what’s the most likely scenario?
Bush said: “The Liberia plan (aka ‘Panlibarg’) could be a way forward but it was more likely just a delaying tactic aimed at reopening old debates. That points to further limbo on emissions regulation for shipping companies.”
That said, some sort of emission-curbing regulation seemed to be a certainty, he wrote.
