With copper increasingly seen as the new oil, expectations are high for the Copperbelt region as global demand surges, driven by the energy transition and the growing need for clean technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy. This rising demand could also fuel a significant increase in prices, further boosting investment in the region.According to James Whiteside, head of corporate, metals and mining at Wood Mackenzie, copper remains severely underinvested relative to net-zero requirements. “For the world to be on a path to net zero, we would need to invest $20 billion per year in copper, a level never reached before. For lithium, the required investment is $8bn per year,” he says. While projects are in the pipeline to address some of the shortfall, mining houses have delayed final investment decisions on most major projects.Meanwhile, BHP forecasts that global copper demand will grow by around 70%, reaching over 50 million tonnes per year by 2050. This growth will be driven by copper’s critical role in both current and emerging technologies, as well as the world’s decarbonisation goals. By 2050, BHP expects the energy transition sector to account for 23% of total copper demand, up from the current 7%. The digital sector, including data centres, 5G and AI, is projected to rise from 1% today to 6%, while transportation’s share – driven by electric vehicle adoption – is expected to climb from 11% in 2021 to 20% by 2040.Experts say it is not only copper but critical minerals in general in southern Africa that are seeing a surge in exploration and development of greenfields and brownfields projects, including recommissioning of shuttered/abandoned mines. This is evident in the rising number of projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia, as well as Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Mozambique.Speaking in Cape Town recently, Richard Horrocks-Taylor, global head of metals and mining at Standard Chartered, said that the cyclicality of the copper sector had to date impacted investment in copper projects, despite strong interest from investors. “Everyone wants to invest in the mineral,” he said, highlighting the challenges posed by market f luctuations.“Looking ahead to 2050, we will need 80% more copper, equivalent to 56 million tonnes beyond what is produced today. Developing these mines will require not just capital but also skilled people. The bigger challenge, however, lies in the geopolitical dynamics – whether we can cooperate with China to develop new projects.” LV
