DRC and Zambia set to dominate global copper production

Exploration and expansion of new and existing mining operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia could see copper production in the two countries reach seven million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by 2030—an increase of nearly 3Mtpa from current levels.“The DRC officially became the world’s second-largest copper producer last year, overtaking Peru,” says Duncan Bonnett, a partner at Africa House. “It is staggering how much production has increased over the past 15 years. In 2010, the DRC was producing less than a million tonnes per year, but in just over a decade, it has tripled output to 3.1Mtpa.”According to Bonnett, the high-quality ore grades and relatively simple mining conditions in the region are key factors behind the surge in production. On the Zambian side, recent government policy shifts have also played a crucial role.“About four years ago, Zambia conducted a review of why copper investment had stalled and benchmarked its tax regime against the DRC’s,” said Bonnett. “Zambia has traditionally had far better infrastructure and accessibility, but its tax policies were out of sync with investor expectations. Since the review, the government has stopped chasing away foreign miners and opened dialogue, which has led to a $3 billion commitment to new projects.”Although Zambia aims to reach 3Mtpa by 2030, Bonnett acknowledges that this target may only be fully realised by 2032, or even later. Production has dropped to 700 000 tonnes per year, with many older mines in the Zambian Copperbelt province struggling. However, there is now significant momentum to unlock new projects and expand existing operations, which could push Zambia’s production beyond 1Mtpa in the next few years.He said it was not only the expansion of existing mines that was cause for excitement, but also increased exploration activity. “This is moving westward towards Angola, and they are uncovering substantial new copper deposits. We’re seeing Kamoa-sized opportunities on both sides of the border,” Bonnett notes. “Some of these new discoveries could add hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper to annual production.”This westward shift also strengthens the case for the Lobito Corridor as a preferred export route. “As copper exploration moves beyond Kolwezi (DRC) and Solwezi (Zambia) towards Angola, it could unlock even more opportunities,” said Bonnett. “With major mines emerging further west, the Lobito Corridor is increasingly becoming a more viable and efficient alternative to traditional ports like Durban, Dar es Salaam, or even Beira.” LV