Last April heralded the start of import decline

The effects of the global slowdown have indeed had a noticeable impact on SA trade, according to Dave Watts, a Kwa Zulu Natal (KZN) director of the SA Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff). He was responding to an article in the January 16 issue of FTW that suggested that – from an analysis of Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) port statistics for the last three months of 2008 – it appeared from the figures that the global crunch had had only “a relatively marginal impact on SA’s trade”. But, Watts told FTW, the figures we were using were for the national port system as a whole, and his closer examination of the 2008 figures for the Port of Durban throw a somewhat different light on the situation. “They indicate that deep sea container movements through the port began to drop off from relatively high levels as the year progressed.” According to Watts’ calculations, the first quarter saw both import and export movements well above those for the same period in 2007. In the case of imports at 201 594-TEUs (an increase of 11.34%) and exports at 149 660 (+21.69%). At the end of June, the halfyear figures showed imports at 416 223-TEUs. “Though still above 2007,” Watts added, “the increase had dropped to 7.66%.” Exports, meantime, continued to race ahead – with 330 046 for the halfyear, up 24.15% on 2007. “By the end of September the level of imports had begun to feel the impact of the recession,” said Watts, “and 635 314-TEUs was now only 3.52% above the previous year.” This meant that relative import levels had been declining regularly since April. Exports, however, continued apace – at 529 033 they were 24.43% above 2007. However, Watts added: “Your article correctly points out that, as the year drew to a close, sharply declining demand both in SA and among our export customers began to make itself felt in no uncertain terms. “The year-on-year comparison for the last quarter makes for uncomfortable reading. Import volumes, at 204 458, were 16.25% below the 244 116 in the same period 2007. Exports, now feeling the strain, were down by 8.95% from 153 708 to 140 016.” According to Watts, the progressive decline in imports since mid-year brought the annual total down to 839 772 – a decline of 2.1%, and the first yearly drop in import volumes through Durban since 2001. “As conversion from bulk and break bulk to containers – particularly for exports – has been a feature of traffic through our ports for some time now,” he said, “it may be best to examine the national trade statistics as they become available to assess the real impact of the recession on trade. “However declines in container traffic impact on all industry players in our ports – from Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) and TNPA, to transporters, C&F agents and a host of other industry participants.”