Imports from Asia down 14%

Declining import figures are
clear evidence of South Africa’s
fragile economy – and the
outlook for the year ahead
remains bleak.
According to Matthew
Conroy, trade manager of
Maersk Line Southern Africa,
the third quarter saw imports
from the country’s largest
trade lane, Asia, decline by
14%, attributed to the lack of
consumer purchasing in South
Africa.
Citing the 2016 Q3 Maersk
trade report, Conroy said
despite a stronger rand
container volumes had
continued to drop.
“The market has declined
by 6% year-on-year, similar to
the 5% year-on-year market
contraction that was reported
in the previous quarter,” he said.
“The main decline has been
seen in imports, which have
declined by 9%.”
Expectations that consumer
spending would increase thanks
to the slightly stronger rand
simply did not materialise.
“We have seen a consistent
decline in imports on all
trade lanes, but more so in
the third
quarter,”
he said.
There
was a
slight increase
in volumes –
specifically on the
Asian trade – towards
the end of September and
October, while November thus
far has been relatively strong in
comparison to the same time
last year, according to Conroy.
“It’s not necessarily
sustainable,”
he said. “Our
view is that
this increase
in volumes
is simply due
to importers
restocking
ahead of the
holiday season.
The stronger
rand to date
has not really
triggered any
notable restocking which is why
imports have been consistently
down this entire year.”
He said expectations were
that the market would decline
again in early December but
rebound at the end of the month
due to the Chinese New Year
being earlier this year at the end
of January.
January volumes are also
expected to increase quite
significantly ahead of the
Chinese New Year.
But there’s likely to be little
respite for the rest of 2017.
“We don’t foresee import
volumes growing significantly
in 2017. In fact
expectations
at this stage
are that we
will see further
decline.”
While weak
consumer
demand, which
has resulted
in relatively
low import
levels, has not
been conducive
to container trade, Conroy
acknowledged that it had
contributed positively to the
country’s recent trade surplus.
“We are monitoring the
situation carefully as the low
demand can lead to supply
overcapacity. The shipping line
remains quite flexible so that it
can address such a situation,”
he said.
INSERT & CAPTION
The stronger rand to
date has not really
triggered any notable
restocking.
– Matt Conroy