Elections in sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest economies, South Africa and Nigeria, in 2019 will set the tone for much of the continent next year. With experts hoping this will bring political impetus and subsequently change, the goal for Africa should be to deliver policy certainty and investor-friendly environments. According to Dr Martyn Davies, the managing director of emerging markets and Africa at Deloitte, it is imperative that South Africa and Nigeria deliver growth along with Kenya as these countries are integral from a regional perspective. “These countries are primary contributors to growth in their regions. South Africa is impacting on the entire southern Africa as is Nigeria on West Africa,” he said. Both countries were struggling to find real growth due to the lack of structural reform in the economies, he said. “There are some structural fundamental flaws in Nigeria, but hopefully we will have some increased tailwinds impacting positively in the country next year,” he said. The improving oil price was a contributing factor for economic growth for the likes of Nigeria, Angola and even Ghana to some extent, said Davies. Davies added that the drop in commodity prices overall had hit Africa hard in recent years but there were also concerns about the individual performance of countries such as South Africa and Nigeria. While these two remained the continental powerhouses, they were also driving down the overall growth. He said it was time to move beyond the ideology of an Africa rising narrative and look at countries individually. “We already see this happening in East Africa where economies such as Rwanda and Ethiopia are not being seen in the same light as a Tanzania,” he said. Rwanda in particular has differentiated itself and showed how a consistent approach to delivering an environment conducive to investment, including ongoing reform and stability, was delivering results. He said this country had moved beyond its past to deliver change to its people. Many African economies continued to be dependent on commodities – and despite the fragility of such a dependence did little to change the status quo. According to Davies there is strong focus on continental free trade and industrialisation, but African governments are best advised to first integrate successfully on a regional level and then improve the state of the infrastructure to optimise that trade.
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The goal for Africa should be to deliver policy certainty and investorfriendly environments. – Dr Martyn Davies
