South African chicken imports have reversed years of decline, with bone-in portions – direct competitors to local frozen packs – rising 136% in the first two months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
According to the FairPlay Movement, volumes remain modest relative to the 2017/2018 import surge that plunged the local industry into crisis, and two months do not confirm a sustained trend.
However, the organisation notes in its latest newsletter on Thursday, April 17, that bone-in imports have climbed since September 2025, prompting industry concern. February statistics in particular have raised warning signals.
Offal imports, including heads, feet, gizzards and livers, have also continued their strong growth, reaching record levels. Volumes doubled from 43 000 tonnes in 2017 to 86 000 tonnes in 2023, then climbed to 95 000 tonnes in 2024 and 103 000 tonnes in 2025.
Brazil, the United States and Argentina have all increased supplies of bone-in portions significantly this year.
Historical data shows bone-in imports peaked at 287 000 tonnes in 2018 before falling to 40 000 tonnes in 2024 and rising to 50 000 tonnes in 2025. The upturn has accelerated, with January imports 82% higher compared to the same month last year and February up 183%.
Anti-dumping duties, the Covid-19 pandemic and bird flu outbreaks in Europe and North America previously shielded local producers. Brazil, the US and seven European countries remain subject to South African anti-dumping duties.
FairPlay notes that the months ahead will indicate whether a fresh wave of imports is developing. Supplies from Brazil have risen markedly, the US is increasing volumes despite ongoing bird flu outbreaks, and Argentina contributed before a bird flu ban halted shipments at the end of February.
European Union imports have been zero so far this year due to multiple outbreaks. With the northern hemisphere winter over, however, incidents are expected to ease. Two EU countries have already applied to lift South African bans, with others likely to follow.
Meanwhile, Dr Tiaan Cilliers, poultry group chairperson at the South African Veterinary Association, has warned that South Africa’s risk of new bird flu outbreaks is increasing, citing the spike in European cases in the final quarter of 2025.
“Given these risks, strict attention should be paid to biosecurity. Specific areas to focus on will be vehicle entry control, vehicle disinfection, personal protective equipment, shower facilities, movement of equipment between houses and/or sites and adequate bird-proofing to prevent exposure to wild birds,” he wrote in the latest AFMA Matrix, the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association magazine.
The sector continues to seek a more practical vaccination protocol from government. Astral Foods, the only producer vaccinating under current rules, has treated about 180 000 broiler breeder birds and plans to expand to more high-risk farms.
Dr Tracy Davids of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) said the local poultry industry must shift focus from defending the domestic market to competing globally on exports.
Writing in the Poultry Bulletin, she noted that South African competitiveness had improved steadily since 2015, overtaking the United States and ranking second only to Brazil.
“South Africa has consistently shown that it can produce a chicken cheaper than European countries do,” she noted.
Domestic production has risen 12% over the past decade, reducing imports from around 24% of consumption in 2018 to 16% by 2024. However, spending power is constraining local demand growth, so future expansion relies on exports.
