Electric vehicle (EV) makers face myriad challenges, but the global market still managed to attain record electric car sales of 3.5 million during the first half of 2022.
This is according IDTechEx research, which released its latest report, Electric Cars 2023 – 2043, on Thursday. The report provides a deep dive into future automotive markets with granular forecasts focusing on the US, China, Norway, the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark.
IDTechEx said in a statement that in recent years it had underestimated the growth of electric car markets in the face of uncertainty from global events and changes, which were often U-turns, to government policy.
The automotive sector is the largest transport sector, with some 80-90 million cars sold globally each year.
“A global fleet of approximately 1.1 billion cars makes the greatest contribution to road emissions, leading the sector to become a natural early focal point for green policymakers,” IDTechEx said.
“While electric cars date back one hundred years, electric car markets as we know them today have been growing since around 2011. Due to their scale, car markets create the largest opportunities for players in the electric vehicle supply chain, from advanced materials through to battery packs, power electronics and electric motors.”
According to the report, global electric car sales surged in 2021 to more than 6.4 million, and IDTechEx predicts sales will hit more than nine million in 2022. However, key challenges persist, such as the chip shortage and manufacturing disruption from the pandemic.
“On the horizon, fundamental shortages of critical raw materials loom, particularly lithium carbonate. While these challenges may impact timescales and the pace of the transition, major automotive markets are headed in one direction: decarbonisation through electric vehicles,” the company said.
As range becomes a key battleground to differentiate electric vehicles amid battery shortages, new powertrain advancements are coming to the forefront. The report details the rise of 800V platforms, silicon carbide (SiC) inverters, more efficient motor systems, and DC fast charging capability.
“The deployment of fuel cells within vehicles is not a new concept. Major OEMs, including Toyota, Ford, Honda, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW have invested large sums over the past 30 years in advancing the technology. For passenger cars, a huge amount of effort and expense has gone into developing fuel cells, but in 2021 only two major OEMs, Toyota and Hyundai, had Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) cars in production, and fewer than 20 000 FCEVs were sold in 2021.
“Fuel cell vehicle deployments face considerable challenges, including decreasing the cost of fuel cell system components and rolling out sufficient hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Also essential will be the availability of cheap 'green' hydrogen, produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity,” IDTechEx added.
