Generally robust outlook for sub-Saharan Africa

Freight volumes will continue to grow in the sub-Saharan region, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa. “Economic conditions have remained generally robust against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy,” says Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, director of the IMF’s African department. “The near-term outlook for the region remains broadly positive, with growth projected above 5% a year in 2012-13. “Strong domestic demand, including from investment, is expected to support growth in many low-income countries,” says Sayeh. High logistics costs due to a lack of infrastructure are, however, putting a brake on growth. It costs US$1 974 per container, compared to a median estimate of US$732 for the Asian countries, according to the report. Investment flows where there is freight. “Transportation output” has grown fastest among the resource exporters: Angola and Nigeria (above 12% a year) and Botswana (8–9% a year). Most of the pressure on growth is coming from external factors – and Europe’s economy in particular. South Africa is one of the countries being affected most by the European slowdown, which is having a knockon effect.