In the often volatile African
market, a largely election-free
2017 in most of South Africa’s
key markets in Southern,
East and West Africa offers some
certainty to shippers trading in
the region.
This decreases the uncertainty
of doing business in a country
whose policies may change
halfway through the year or where
there may be unrest leading up to,
or after, the elections.
Addressing delegates at a
recent Johannesburg Chamber of
Commerce and Industry (JCCI)
business breakfast, Duncan
Bonnett, director of strategy
and business development at
Africa House, pointed out that it
was strategically important for
shippers, traders and investors to
look at where and when elections
were taking place on the African
continent, as well as regions/
countries where there was conflict
and unrest.
“This could potentially
disrupt or challenge a lucrative
business deal so it’s always sound
to proceed with caution,” he
commented, pointing out that
July and August next year were
key election times in sub-Saharan
Africa.
He singled out some key
markets as potentially “ones to
watch”, including Kenya and
Angola which will see
voters going to the polls
in August next year.
“Kenya’s August 2017
elections are likely to be
hard fought and there
may be some business
fall-out around that,” said
Bonnett, adding that the Angolan
opposition party was unlikely to
make large inroads.
“However, there is still
potential for some unrest as the
domestic economy is under severe
pressure.”
Although the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) may
possibly delay the planned
elections to April 2018, Bonnett
said that they could “make or
break” development in the country.
“Mining houses and other investors
are awaiting the election outcome
which means most major projects
in the country are probably still 18
to 24 months away from initiation,”
said Bonnett.
Furthermore, in concert with
elections, lower commodity prices
and possibly rising food prices,
could see some localised tensions
spilling over as well, he added.
Conflict ‘hot spots’
• The rise of Islamist groups
and disaffected Tuaregs in
West Africa, Islamists in East
Africa, Sahel (and surrounds)
and Nigeria (and region) poseS
threats at varying levels.
• In concert with elections, lower
commodity prices and possibly
rising food prices, could see
some localised tensions spilling
over as well.
• There are also tensions rising
in Ethiopia over land in Oromia
where foreign investors are
being targeted.
