‘Billions’ is most accurate estimate of strike losses

Just how much has the Transnet strike cost SA? If you say “billions” you will be as accurate as any of the estimates, because – even using firm figures on the SA gross domestic product (GNP) and trade stats – you’d still be short of a lot of exact numbers, like actual wages lost and the cost of industrial shut-downs. One of the most acceptable guesstimates was that of Business Unity SA (Busa) which calculated that the cost to the local economy was about R3.5-billion a week – or a total for the three week strike of about R10.5-bn. But some other estimates are even higher. Using extrapolations from a threeyear- old SA Navy document by the Durban Harbour Carriers’ Association (DHCA), it can be estimated that import and export trade across the border (including the SA coastline as a border) is almost R10-bn per week. That means that trade lost was about R30-bn for the three week work stoppage. However, as a maritime specialist in the SA Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff) told FTW, that is not permanently “lost” – but delayed somewhere along the supply chains in and out of the country. But nonetheless that R30-bn worth of goods was not sold during the strike, or used in industrial production, and those three weeks have gone forever, so the GNP for this year will be considerably lower than it would have been without the loss of those three weeks of economic activity. And, another authoritative commentator told FTW, that three week loss is only a short-term hiccup. But the longer-term damage done to the SA reputation as an exporter is enormous, after supply chains had been severely disrupted and promised exports would have failed to arrive timeously – and, in many cases, export contracts have been permanently lost. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted this longerterm consequence. “SA operates in competition with other developing nations and such negative perceptions have the potential to divert investments to our competitors such as India and Brazil,” said a chamber statement. And, where some products were marginally price-competitive before the strike, the very fact that shipping lines have imposed “a congestion surcharge” could kill this marginal advantage.