JOY ORLEK
REFLECTING GLOBAL trends, trade into Africa was fairly flat last year with little movement in the performances of our top ten partners, according to trade consultant Duncan Bonnett of Whitehouse & Associates.
“South Africa obviously struggled because of the strong rand,” said Bonnett, particularly into the price-sensitive African markets. But it was also a difficult year for most of our trading partners with high oil prices translating into higher regional transport costs,” he said.
What remains to be seen is whether the decline in exports
was due to the stronger rand or increased competition from the likes of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India, particularly to the east coast of Africa
Can’t compete
“We clearly can’t compete with China’s economies of scale,” says Bonnett.
“If you look at the landlocked countries in southern Africa, Swaziland sources 90% from South Africa, and Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia anything from 35-50%.
“We’re seeing an increasing volume of goods from China starting to enter those markets,” says Bonnett.
Another competitive source
is Dubai. A Malawi trader, for example, chooses to source his electronic equipment from Dubai where he can buy smaller quantities duty-free.
While the first few months
of the year have shown little fireworks, Bonnett is confident of an upturn during the second half.
“We’re likely to see a lot more funds flowing into Angola which will draw more project action with the trade flows that tend to follow.”
The DRC is another market which holds particular promise, he added.
