Airfreight 'visionary' paints positive industry outlook

WITH THE global economy under strain, the US dollar under pressure, and crude oil trading at over US$120 per barrel, the outlook for the airfreight industry would appear to be bleak. But despite these indicators, divisional senior vice president cargo for Emirates SkyCargo Ram Menen is bullish about future growth. “World trade is forecast to grow at around 7-8% per annum until 2011, and since airfreight demand moves in a similar pattern to global trade, it will likely grow at a slightly lower rate – just under 5% - for the next few years,” Menen told delegates at the Ciltsa airfreight conference in Gauteng recently. Clearly the road ahead will present its fair share of challenges, not least of these the modal competition from sea and road. “Airfreight has a tremendous speed advantage for long distances but is the highest-cost option,” said Menen. Trucks on the other hand are very competitive for shorthaul routes while the development of new ‘fast ships’ for ocean cargo is adding to the mix. But despite the competition, there are plenty of opportunities there for the taking. “International airfreight within Asia and exported from Asia currently accounts for around 45% of total global freight. And this figure will rise to over 55% of new traffic by 2011.” He also predicts that growth will be above average in the Middle East and Africa. “New routes and new aircraft can open up new geographical and product markets for airfreight, and while the industry remains exposed to unpredictable external shocks, the medium to long-term outlook for growth is still positive.” Quoting the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2006/7, he predicts that world air cargo traffic will treble over the next 20 years with Asia’s air cargo markets continuing to lead the way.