African elections add to business risk

There are fears of the current political instability in Arab countries and West Africa spreading as a record number of African countries go to the polls this year. “This year is perhaps one of the busiest years in the electoral calendar of Africa since the 1990s,” says Solomon A Dersso, senior researcher, Peace and Security Council Report Programme, of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Addis Ababa. “More than 18 African countries are scheduled to conduct elections that might determine a change in leadership,” he says. Investors and the business community – including the freight industry – will be watching developments carefully in order to manage risk to their personnel and operations. West Africa is the busiest of all with six countries, followed by Southern Africa where four countries including Madagascar are expected to hold national elections. Central and East Africa will each have elections in three countries, and two countries in North Africa will go to the polls this year. “While elections bring enthusiasm and hope for democratic consolidation and change, more often than not elections in Africa are also notorious for spawning violence,” says Dersso. Violence and destabilisation could derail economic recovery, for which the signs are good, according to Mthuli Ncube, chief economist at the African Development Bank (AfDB). Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, he said Africa could see gross domestic product growth of 6% this year and, potentially, between 6.2% and 6.5% in 2012.