Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world.
In response, WTO economists have raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August).
However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%).
Global services export growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
In the October 7 update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics", WTO economists provide new analysis on the build-up in inventories in 2025
While artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment lifted growth, they predict a cooling of the global economy as new tariffs set in.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "Countries' measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped ease trade setbacks in 2025."
She noted that South-South trade had grown 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. South-South trade, involving partners other than China, is growing even faster, up around 9%.
"Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” she said. “Yet complacency is not an option. Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
