On September 15, 2026, the WTO released its 2026 edition of the World Trade Report, which states that a strengthened multilateral trading system could increase global GDP by roughly 3% or US$3 trillion by 2050 while inaction to modernise the trading system could reduce global output by up to 10%. The WTO Secretariat’s flagship publication, which examines what the multilateral trading system has delivered over 80 years and where it faces challenges, offers evidence relevant to ongoing efforts to keep trade rules fit for purpose.
“The multilateral trading system has delivered enormous benefits over the past 80 years, helping to create a more integrated and resilient global economy,” said Okonjo‑Iweala. “The evidence shows that around 72% of global merchandise trade still takes place under the WTO’s most favoured nation terms while WTO-led trade cooperation has supported economic growth, helped narrow income gaps between developing and advanced economies and contributed to peace among members.”
“The global trading landscape has changed significantly but the founding logic of the system, that all economies are better off cooperating rather than acting unilaterally, remains as relevant today as ever,” she said. “WTO members are now engaging actively on reform in full recognition that the status quo is not an option. The multilateral trading system has been repaired and renewed before and I believe it can be again.”
The World Trade Report 2026: A Critical Juncture for the World Trading System presents three scenarios for the future of the global trading system:
- A scenario of a strengthened multilateral framework could raise global GDP by 2.9% and global exports by 17.9% by 2050 relative to the baseline trajectory. This scenario assumes a world where WTO rules are strengthened through broader market-opening commitments, new multilateral disciplines in digital trade and services, wider membership and a calibrated framework that balances trade openness with security concerns. For least-developed countries (LDCs), which currently account for less than 1% of world trade, the gains could be particularly significant. Under this scenario, the GDP of LDCs is projected to increase by 7.7% due to benefits derived from tariff and other trade cost reductions. High-income economies stand to gain substantially in absolute terms with projected GDP gains of about US$1.7 trillion in 2023, reflecting in particular the benefits of lower trade costs in services.
- The two other scenarios cover simulations where multilateral trade rules are eroded: a “geo-fragmented world” (-5.1% and -18.6% declines in GDP and exports respectively) in which trade cooperation is organised around geopolitical blocs and a “free trade agreement (FTA) world” (-6.9% and -26.9% declines in GDP and exports respectively) in which a network of FTAs replaces multilateral cooperation. Comparing these scenarios indicates the costs of losing the WTO and the potential gains from deeper cooperation.
This implies that the gap between strengthened multilateral cooperation and the erosion of multilateral trading rules is an opportunity cost of roughly -5% to -10% of global real GDP, depending on the scenario.
The report argues that many of the challenges confronting the multilateral trading system today stem from its own achievements. Over the past eight decades, the system has helped reduce trade barriers, support a nearly 50-fold expansion in global trade and create a more open, integrated and rules-based global economy. WTO membership has also been associated with increased trade between members, greater resilience during economic crises and a peace-promoting effect through rules-based cooperation.
According to the report, the same developments that have strengthened the global economy have also made cooperation more complex. The report identifies four developments:
- Shifts in economic power
- The growing prominence of government interventions such as industrial policy and level playing field concerns
- Changes in the nature of trade driven by digitalisation, global value chains and the environmental transformation
- Rising geopolitical tensions
While the report does not prescribe a blueprint for WTO reform, it highlights areas where trade rules may need to adapt. It concludes that preserving the benefits of the multilateral trading system does not mean preserving the status quo. Instead, the challenge for WTO members is to adapt rules-based cooperation to a more integrated, multipolar and diverse global economy while preserving the openness, predictability and fairness that have underpinned the system’s success.
The report was launched on the first day of the public forum on September 15. Okonjo‑Iweala, opening the event, said: “As members move forward with WTO reform, this difficult moment for the trading system has the potential to become a turning point for renewal and revitalisation. The World Trade Report explains, with factual rigour and historical depth, what the system has delivered and where the mechanisms are now under strain.”
She cited a lesson from the report that feels particularly relevant today: “Members have repaired and renewed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/WTO system before. It is in their power to do so again. So let’s not be fearful: the system has faced challenges before and has been able to renew and revitalise itself. We can do it again.”
WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger presented key findings of the report, followed by a panel discussion.
The report and the presentation are accessible at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/world-trade-report-2026_e.htm and https://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum26_e/pf26_session_fullpage_e.htm?session=1709