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US likely to become largest investor in next decade

03 Nov 2020 - by Liesl Venter and Ed Richardson
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Despite massive international investment in Mozambique’s coal and gas fields, South Africa remains the country’s top trading partner.According to Daniel Workman of World’s Top Exports, the latest available data shows that about four fifths (79.4%) of products exported from Mozambique were bought by importers in: South Africa (18.9% of the global total), India (17%), China (6.9%), Italy (6.4%), Netherlands (5.2%), United Kingdom (4.7%), Belgium (4.2%), Spain (3.6%), Singapore (also 3.6%), Hong Kong (3.4%), South Korea (2.9%) and Poland (2.7%).From a continental perspective, 41.3% of Mozambique exports by value were delivered to Asian countries while 31.6% were sold to importers in Europe. Intra-African trade accounted for 23.7% of the value of exports.Smaller percentages went to North America (2.1%), Latin America (1.3%) excluding Mexico but including the Caribbean, then Oceania (0.04%) led by Australia.This mix should be changing. According to the US government’s export.gov country review, “US involvement in the oil and gas sector will create significant demand for US exports in that sector, as well as others, and the US is likely to become the largest investor in Mozambique in the next decade”.It notes that the United States is the largest bilateral donor of development assistance to Mozambique, despite the fact that it was not a major trade partner.Brazil, China, India and Japan are also increasing their investments in Mozambique.Vegetables represent the fastest grower among the top 10 export categories, up by 383.5% from 2018 to 2019. In second place was a 322.5% increase in oil seed exports. Mozambique’s controversial exports of wood showed the third-fastest gain, growing by 166.7%.At the four-digit Harmonized Tariff System (HTS) code level, Mozambique’s most valuable exported goods are coal including solid fuels made from coal (21.5% of the total), raw aluminium (19.9%), electrical energy (9.2%), petroleum gases (5.7%), unmanufactured tobacco including waste (4.9%), coke and semi-coke (4.5%), titanium ores and concentrates (4.2%), unstrung precious or semi-precious stones (3.8%), aluminium wire (2.2%), then cashews, brazil nuts and coconuts (1.9%).In 2018 (the latest available figures), Mozambique imported US$10.3 billion, making it the number 101 trade destination in the world. During the last five reported years, the imports of Mozambique changed by -$566M from $10.8B in 2013 to $10.3B in 2018, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.A large percentage of imports are related to aluminium production at Mozal. The most recent imports of Mozambique are led by refined petroleum ($1.32b), chromium ore ($614m), aluminium oxide ($505m), raw aluminium ($445m), and ferroalloys ($267m).

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