With a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports possible in January, and President-elect Donald Trump planning to increase tariffs, the United States’ major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates on Thursday, the surge is forecast to last until next spring.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold.
“We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike.
“And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
Talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance broke down recently over port automation concerns, leaving open the potential for a strike after the current contract extension expires in January 2025.
Last week, NRF led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter asking both parties to return to the bargaining table.
Meanwhile, Trump has said he plans to increase a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on January 20.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers were under pressure as they frontloaded cargo to avoid both the disruption of the strike and higher costs due to tariffs.
“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said.
“The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in October, although the Port of Miami has yet to report final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year on year.
Ports have not yet reported November’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year over year.
December is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% y-o-y, bringing volumes for 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023.
January 2025 is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, up 12% y-o-y; February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories; March at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%, and April at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%.
