Monthly US import cargo volumes are expected to reach their highest level in two years this summer.
This is according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates this week.
“Consumers are continuing to spend more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand, especially as we head into peak shipping season,” NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy, Jonathan Gold, said.
“The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges again, this time with congestion at overseas ports, that are affecting operations and shipping rates,” he said.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said an expected seven-month string of import levels above two million TEUs, a level reached only twice since October 2022, is partly due to changes in the annual peak season for shipping.
“Imports of containerised goods at US ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast,” Hackett said.
“In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past,” he added.
Hackett said reasons ranged from retailers restocking following strong sales, while aiming to beat increased tariffs on goods from China, that takes effect in August, and ensuring sufficient inventories to meet strong consumer demand during the holidays.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEUs in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available. Volumes are up 4.6% from March and 13.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), the highest since the 2.06 million TEUs moved last October.
Ports have not yet reported May’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker has projected that volumes rose to 2.09 million TEUs, up 8.3% y-o-y.
Volumes are expected to rise further to 2.11 million TEUs in June, while July is forecast at 2.1 million TEUs, and August at 2.17 million TEUs, up 10.6%.
The first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.1 million TEUs, up 15% from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totalled 22.3 million TEUs, down 12.8% compared to 2022.
The NRF has forecast that 2024 core retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023.
