World trade can be a labyrinth, especially when the globe’s in the grip of escalating tariff tension and the so-called leader of the free world is known more for his inflammatory pronouncements on social media than for his leadership. But US President Donald Trump’s recent upper-case tirade on Twitter against Iran – some see his regular fulminations as “twerrorism” – are “the actions of a man in desperate search for a strategy rather than a strategic means to execute decisions,” said Brooks Spector, retired US diplomat. In fact, the problem with the Trump administration’s foreign policy, added the analyst of American affairs, is that “there is no strategic vision”. Disgusted by what happened recently in Helsinki, when it looked like America was being sold out to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the very man that should protect their interests, Spector wrote in Daily Maverick that he never thought he would see Trump “fully metastasise into something astoundingly shallow as well as something so deeply flawed and evil”. All the more reason to be worried when Trump tweeted that Iran should “never, ever threaten the United States again.” That is unless they want to “suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. To be fair, it was in response to the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, ranting that his country is prepared to wage “the mother of all wars” on the US if America proceeds with sanctions against Iran. “That’s the real issue here,” said Spector, recalling the trade reprieve Iran received under the US’s previous dispensation. “Anything that Barack Obama did, Trump is against.” Spector added that the US president was also unconcerned about Iran’s threat to blockade oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz seeing as most Iranian oil goes to India and China, the latter being Trump’s primary target for tariffs. However, to obstruct shipping through the Strait will also affect oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait and although Trump would like to see the Islamic rule of Iran’s Ayatollah overthrown, he’s got much bigger fish to fry – at home. “Imagine you’re a farmer in Iowa (a Republican state) with 3 000 acres of soya beans under cultivation? “You are now deeply distressed,” said Spector about China’s decision to drastically cut soya bean imports from the US because of tariffs Trump has imposed on the government of Xi Jinping. So bad has the effect of tit-for-tat penalty measures been on US soya exports to its biggest Asian client, that Trump’s administration pledged a $12bn bailout to bean-belt farmers in Iowa and neighbouring states. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Milk Producers' Organisation reports that the country’s on the verge of recording its biggest soya crop of all time, around 1.34 million tonnes, with net export potential of 30 000 tonnes. Spector said that apart from feeling the heat from little legumes, the consequences of Trump’s trade penalties were reverberating right across the US economy. “If you’re the general sales manager of a company manufacturing washing machines, your feet are tied because the sheet steel that’s imported from somewhere else is so heavily tariffed, you can’t compete with cheaper imports,” Spector said. Facing the fallout at home from his economic policies, not to mention growing evidence that he may be Putin’s stooge, is probably one of the reasons why Trump is turning to old foes such as Iran to shore up support by fomenting old fears. Of course there’s also the notso-small matter of forthcoming mid-term elections and the Democrats are closing in.
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Imagine you’re a farmer in Iowa with 3 000 acres of soya beans under cultivation? You are now deeply distressed. “ – Brooks Spector
