Truck market expects 12.3% growth this year

The South African truck market is expected to grow by 12.3% to a whopping 29 358 units in the coming year barring any major incidents. According to Rory Schulz, head of corporate planning and marketing for UD Trucks Southern Africa (UDTSA), an event such as a tsunami or a drastic increase in the oil price could see the market affected and come down drastically by up to 40%. “We are very positive and believe that we will see the growth of 12.3%,” he said. “We did not take any of the major events into account though such as the current issues happening around oil in Iran or the possible double dip.” The forecast 12.3% is down from the 17.39% growth experienced in 2011. According to Johan Richards, CEO of UDTSA, this is due to the market coming off a very low base in 2010 due to the recession that boosted 2011 sales considerably and inflated the growth experienced in 2011. “Due to the Japanese tsunami we did have some major stock shortages in 2011 that resulted in a lot of back orders,” he said. “We are optimistic about the year ahead, but the world of business has changed in recent years, making it difficult to predict. There are many variables that play a role and it has come down to daily planning to be accurate.” He said the forecasts for 2012 included estimates on Mercedes-Benz South Africa (MBSA) sales. In December the company stopped reporting on its local sales following a directive from its German parent company. This is said to be related to a European Union Competition Commission investigation into European truck makers and could have legal ramifications should sales in the rest of the world be reported. Schulz said the extra-heavy truck market was expected to grow by 10.96% this year, heavy trucks by 17.95% and medium heavy vehicles by 11.13%. “The year ahead is not looking too bad and we have some good underlying factors to ensure that we manage to reach our targets in 2012,” he said. The 2011 truck market was once again dominated by MBSA which took 17.24% market share, followed by Hino with 13.1% and UDTSA with 12.51%. Schulz said UDTSA had drawn up an aggressive marketing plan and was committed to growing its sales to 4000 units in the coming months. In 2011 the company grew its sales by 27.67% to 3234 units. “Our aim is to increase our sales to such an extent that we will be selling 10 000 units by 2015.”