South African ports can expect an uptick in transshipments due to their geographical location, as the size of new vessels continues to rise, despite the anticipated dip in demand after the post-pandemic surge in activity.
This is the outlook for the future, according to Steve Wray, head of UK-based maritime advisory, Infrata Limited, who highlighted the outlook for 2023/2024 for global shipping lines in relation to calls at local ports, at the Intermodal Africa 2023 conference in Durban on Tuesday.
Wray said the first half of 2022 had seen “huge profit margins” for major shipping lines compared with 2021 as the global economy rebounded after the pandemic. However, their earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) dipped in Q3 and Q4 2022, with Maersk recording a 45% q-o-q drop in Ebit in the fourth quarter.
But this has not deterred major shipping lines like MSC, APM Maersk, CMA, CGM, COSCO, Hapag Lloyd, Evergreen and ONE investing in new-builds of ever-larger new-generation vessels.
“The shipping lines have an estimated 6.6 million in new tonnage currently on order and 5.5 million of that tonnage is for the top ten lines. A total of 1.63 million TEU are scheduled for delivery in 2023,” he said.
In 2022 MSC received the largest ship ever built, a 24,116 TEU vessel, and the line has 18 megamax and 63 post-panamax ships scheduled for delivery in 2023.
According to Wray SA ports are well-positioned to take advantage of the trend towards larger vessels, when trade volumes eventually pick up again.
“Services from the Far East will increase in size leading to a cascade of larger vessels on to secondary services including those calling at ports in South Africa. Bigger ships offer more opportunities for transshipment and the Indian Ocean and East African facilities are well placed to handle transshipment services at their hubs,” Wray said.
However, he warned that SA ports must be able to handle bigger vessels, or lines would not call with their mainline vessels.
“Given surplus tonnage, now is also a great time to attract additional calls, although container terminals need to be wary of overcapacity in the region as a whole if all expansion plans go ahead.”
He predicts that an increase in transshipment will see a requirement for larger vessels, so vessels serving outports will also see an increase in size and volumes.
