The global economy is undergoing what a report by asset manager ARK Invest describes as the biggest technological transformation in history. The disruptive innovation-focused firm says massive change is coming in artificial intelligence, medical developments, blockchain, new forms of energy, quantum computing and robotics.
According to ARK, the results could include vast economic growth, inflation dropping to 0% or lower, a complete change in healthcare and abundance for all. Alternatively, it could be the stuff of nightmares.
A recent report by financial services firm Morgan Stanley predicts that 13 million humanoid robots will be among us by 2035, rising to one billion by 2050. Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could eventually number in the tens of billions. Amazon Robotics reports that it has developed, produced and deployed more than 750 000 robots since the business was founded in 2012.
I explored the rise of robots in warehouses during a presentation at the 2026 SAPICS Conference in Cape Town.
Warehouse automation dates back to the 1960s. Among its benefits were that facilities could be smaller and operate around the clock with fewer workers. In the 1970s, pallet automated guided vehicles were introduced to replace forklift trucks, but these had limited success in South Africa.
I believe the rise of robots in warehouses will happen faster than many expect because the potential benefits are considerable.
If a human worker wants to master a complex logistics sorting task, it can take weeks of training. If there are one million humanoid robots, however, only one robot needs to perfect the task. Within a millisecond, the remaining 999 999 robots could possess that same skill.
Advanced humanoid robots such as Tesla’s Optimus 3 can already perform general-purpose tasks using advanced artificial intelligence and dexterity, particularly in the hands. Tesla has confirmed that the upgraded Optimus Gen 4 will be produced in higher numbers from later this year.
What does this mean for South African warehouses?
Some local facilities already use established technologies such as autonomous mobile robots and robotic arms, as well as robots for sorting, storage, picking, packing, driving and palletising. However, robots are not becoming cheaper in South Africa, and the biggest issue locally is the potential effect on employment.
The number of industrial robots installed per 10 000 employees in other countries illustrates why regional unemployment rates form part of the equation. South Korea and Singapore each have about 700 robots per 10 000 employees. South Korea’s unemployment rate is below 4%, while Singapore’s is below 2%. South Africa’s unemployment rate is almost 34%, making it one of the highest in the world.
Even so, the potential payback on an investment in a humanoid robot could become attractive to South African warehouse operators.
A hypothetical payback period could be as short as one year, based on the assumptions that a robot costs $20 000 (about R340 000) and works two shifts, replacing two workers who each cost R15 000 a month.
These are interesting times. Robots are undoubtedly part of our future, but we cannot yet say when or to what extent they will be adopted, particularly in South Africa.
