The oil-price and the country’s deteriorating infrastructure are two very real factors all logistics companies should be factoring into their annual strategies, says scenario and futurist planner, Clem Sunter. Speaking at a breakfast organised by The Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport (Ciltsa) in Johannesburg recently, Sunter said it was important for all companies – not just in South Africa, but also across the globe – to look at their relevance in a post-recession economic environment. “Logistics and transport companies must ask themselves how their industry and business have changed in the past five to ten years, what is the relevance of their existence at present and then also what is the company’s relevance into the future. Once you have the answers to these fundamental questions you can realistically draw up a strategy taking you beyond 2010.” He said the deteriorating infrastructure was a very real threat at present that all companies doing future planning should be taking into account and dealing with now. “What are you as a transport business going to do, but also how are you as an industry going to deal with the lack of infrastructure in the coming years?” he asked. Sunter told delegates that with most future scenario planning there was always the possibility that the threat could and would be addressed – in the case of infrastructure the government might fix it – but that it was important to be ready when it happened. “It comes down to being able to look at one’s environment, planning as much as you can for future scenarios and then having the savvy and ability to respond to developments as and when they happen.” According to Sunter a very real threat for logistics companies will be the oil price, which has in recent years rocketed to more than a hundred dollars a barrel. “While it has stabilised around $80 per barrel there is one scenario saying that in the next ten years oil could increase to $200 per barrel. That is not necessarily going to happen, but do you as a business have a plan, a strategy in place to be able to deal with this scenario should it transpire?” He said companies putting together strategies beyond 2010 should be taking energy chains into context. “If the recovery continues well all indications are that the oil price will increase. Using energy chains more efficiently will be crucial and companies looking at strategies beyond 2010 must factor this component into their planning.”
