Belt-tightening will be the
order of the day through the
rest of 2016, but African
economic prospects are
expected to start improving again
in 2017 – which means that freight
volumes will also grow.
In its recently published economic
outlook for Africa, the African
Development Bank predicts that the
growth of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) across Africa in 2016 will
have fallen by 1.9% from the 3.6%
recorded in 2015.
In 2015, East Africa recorded
the highest growth, at 6.3%. South
Africa’s 2.2% was the lowest.
But it expects GDP growth to
rebound to 3.2% in 2017. This “could
accelerate” to 4.5%.
Growth will be supported by a
“recovery in the world economy
and a gradual rise in commodity
prices”, said Abdul Kamara, Sudan
representative of the bank when
presenting the report in Khartoum.
This optimism is shared by the
World Bank, which is predicting
that economic growth in sub-
Saharan Africa will increase to 4%
in 2017.
Logistics services are helping to
support economic growth.
“Both traditional services such as
transport, trade, real estate, public
and financial services and new
information and telecommunication
technologies remain important
drivers for productivity and growth,”
says the African Development Bank
report.
“A recent surge in infrastructure
investment indicates that states are
investing in transport corridors to
connect urban agglomerations and
transform them into urban clusters.
Examples include the Greater
Ibadan-Lagos-Accra urban corridor,
the Maputo Development Corridor,
and the Northern Corridor between
East and Central Africa.
“These investments will surge
with deeper market integration
through reduced transport and
trade costs. They will
also foster competition
and productivity, which
will make African hubs more
attractive for foreign investors,” it
adds.
According to the third quarter
Nielsen report on Africa’s prospects,
the markets topping the business
prospects list in terms of overall
country growth expectations are
Ethiopia, Ghana and Namibia.
Ethiopia’s leading position
remains unchanged for the third
successive survey, indicating the
business sector’s acknowledgement
of the country’s impressive overall
development.
Businesses rank their own
growth prospects highest in
Botswana, followed by Ethiopia and
Namibia/Mozambique, according
to the report.
Six of the top nine countries
shifted in position over the six
months between the second and
third Nielsen Africa Prospects
report.
The top countries, Cote d’Ivoire,
Kenya and Tanzania, remain
unchanged in overall position.
Ghana, Cameroon and Uganda’s
comparative conditions – based on a
combination of macro environment,
business, consumer and retail
prospects – have improved, moving
them up the rankings.
Nigeria, Zambia and South Africa
moved down the rankings.
Zambia is ranked 9th (from 5th
in Q3, 2015), South Africa 8th
(from 7th) and Nigeria 7th.
Nigeria topped the list in the first
quarter of 2015 and fourth in Q3,
2015.
Signs of African recovery
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