World container port handling will decrease for only the third time since 1979 if US President Donald Trump sticks to his tariff war, according to Simon Heaney, senior manager, container research at Drewry.“We have a lot of sympathy for container shipping executives trying to game plan for Trump 2.0. There are going to be very few, if any, upsides for container shipping from this trade war,” said Heaney. Adding to the impact of the tariffs is the Shipbuilding and Harbor Infrastructure for Prosperity and Security for America Act of 2024 (SHIPS for America Act).Speaking during a briefing on the outlook for global shipping, Heaney said the outlook for container shipping was even more uncertain now than it was at the onset of the Covid virus.“The difference now is that then the world quickly got to grips with the risks that Covid presented and was able to plot a recovery in a remarkably short space of time. “However, none of Trump’s policy decisions or executive orders relating to trade have any quality of permanence.” Forecasts therefore change with the decisions of the president. Drew r y’s calculations are informed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).Speaking at the release of the April 2025 IMF World Economic Outlook, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director, of the IMF research department said, “the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset”.The IMF predicts that global growth will reach 2.8% this year and 3% next year, a cumulative downgrade of about 0.8 percentage points relative to its January 2025 estimate.Growth in sub-Saharan Africa was expected to ease to 3.8% from a predicted 4.2%, rising to 4.2% in 2026, due to weaker demand abroad, softer commodity prices, and tighter financial markets, said Abebe Selassie, director of the IMF African department. Shippers would be affected further if there was damage to the international monetary system due to the financial instability, said Heaney. The WTO estimates that world merchandise trade will be three percentage points lower in 2025 than it would have been without the Trump tariffs.Drewry forecasts that world container port handling (loaded, empties and transhipment) will decrease 1.0% in 2025 as a direct result of US trade policies.Further disruption will come if the SHIPS for America Act comes into force, with service fees on Chinese operators and Chinese-built vessels in October this year amounting to $180 per 40-foot container, rising to $1 400 in April 2028, according to Hea ney. ER
