The global bulk carrier f leet is expected to reach one billion deadweight tons (DWT) by the end of 2024.Demand for bulk carrier newbuilds over the past decade has been propelled by the introduction of stricter environmental regulations, advances in shipbuilding technology and shifts in trade patterns. According to AXSMarine, by the end of 2023, the global bulk carrier f leet (including vessels larger than 25 000 MT of DWT) had reached capacity of over 980 million DWT, ref lecting a robust growth trajectory of over 34% from 730 million DWT in 2013. However, the international shipping association BIMCO says the dry bulk f leet is predicted to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, the slowest since 2016. Despite the slowdown, ship deliveries are forecast to reach 32 and 32.4 million DWT in 2024 and 2025 respectively.A major shift in trade patterns has been the expansion of China and India, both of which are big importers of commodities. Orders for newbuilds are driven by the commodity market, with the 2015-2016 downturn in commodity prices temporarily slowing f leet growth to 1% in 2017, according to AXSMarine.Government lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic halved f leet growth in 2021 and 2022 compared to the preceding two years.DNV China forecasts that more than 2 900 bulk carriers will need to be replaced in the coming five years.Jing Yang Sunny Li, ship type expert for tankers at DNV China, says the country is the leader in bulk newbuild projects. According to Clarksons, 66% of bulk carrier newbuild orders, measured in gross tonnage, are placed in China, while in 2023 close to 80% of the bulker orders were awarded to Chinese yards.Demand for space is forecast to grow 3% in 2024 and stabilise in 2025, if there is a reduction or cessation of the Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.The longer route around the Cape means that vessel turnaround times have increased.Sailing speeds have also dropped in order to reduce costs and emissions, according to BIMCO.Fleet utilisation increased across almost all vessel size segments, reports AXSMarine.The biggest year-over-year increase in 2023 saw the Ultramax f leet segment between 60K MT and 68K MT of deadweight carry 14.2% more dry bulk cargoes in 2023 than in 2022. The demand for Ultramax and Supramax vessels came from the coal and other ores/minerals markets.
