SA not alone in export decline

But in dollar terms figures are up THE EXPORT community felt the pinch in 2003, according to the latest trade data released by Customs and Excise, with the strong rand being routinely blamed for the decline. The figures revealed that exports declined by 12.2% year on year in 2003. However, imports also fell by 6.1% over the 12-month period. Is it just the currency then, asked Duncan Bonnett of trade consultants Whitehouse and Associates. There is very little doubt that the strong rand had an impact on the ability of SA companies to export - and it appears to be virtually across the board. “However,” said Bonnett, “it should be noted that - in US dollar terms - SA’s exports increased by over 20% year on year in 2003. “This perhaps indicating that, rather than a strong or weak currency, we need a stable currency in order to be able to have a more predictive environment.” A comparison with the trade performances of key trading partners is revealing, according to Bonnett. “SA was not the only country that suffered in export terms last year,” he said. To define this situation, and alleviate any regional differences and the various exchange rate factors, Bonnett compiled a comparison, benchmarked upon trade between a number of countries and the USA. Overall, US imports during 2003 rose by 8.3%, while exports rose by 4.6%. “Thus,” said Bonnett, “despite a weak dollar, exporters from across the globe still managed to grow exports into the US market by over 8%.” Meantime, SA’s exports to the US (in rand terms) fell by close to 20% over the same period. “However,” Bonnett added, “in US dollar terms, SA’s exports increased by 11.8% over the same period - thus exceeding the global average.”