South Africa is losing out in the coal export market as Australia and Indonesia, the main exporters of coal to China, grow their market share at the expense of longer haul exporters like South Africa and the US.
That’s according to market analysis by the Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco), the largest of the international shipping associations representing ship-owners.
“After dropping in 2015, the commodity trades into China are now showing great support to the dry bulk shipping industry,” said Bimco’s chief shipping analyst Peter Sand.
According to Sand, since 2014 there has been a change in the coal trade patterns where China has singled out its key distributors and focused increasingly on them. “This has brought around shorter sailing distances, due to the proximity of exporters.”
Sand added: “In 2013 China’s coal imports achieved high tonne-miles for the dry bulk shipping industry, due to China sourcing 23% of its seaborne coal volumes from origins other than Australia and Indonesia - primarily long haul routes from the eastern part of the US and South Africa.
“These trade patterns have since changed to only sourcing 16% from origins other than Australia and Indonesia in 2016. The origins have also changed to primarily shorter hauls from the western part of Canada and Malaysia – with China not importing any significant amount from the US and South Africa since October 2014.”
The change in the coal trade patterns has seen the US and South Africa as the biggest losers, both seeing their exports to China plummet since Q3 2014, according to Sand.
