The likelihood of normalisation of maritime trade through the Red Sea towards the middle of 2025 seems unlikely after this weekend’s military attacks by the United States against Houthi rebel command structures in Yemen.
This is after the US confirmed that it had conducted a series of lethal airstrikes in Sana’a, the Yemeni capital where most of the Ansar Allah militia leaders are based.
Although US officials have claimed the deaths of "multiple Houthi leaders" in targeted operations, the Houthis have not independently verified these claims.
According to the White House and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, senior figures within the Iran-backed rebel group were eliminated.
The aerial bombardments, described by Washington as "decisive and powerful," reportedly killed at least 53 people, including women and children.
The latest escalation of violence along the Red Sea coast comes amid fragile ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, where Israel recently halted aid deliveries and warned of "additional consequences" for Hamas.
The Houthis had paused attacks on international shipping and Israel following January’s Gaza truce but resumed threats last week in response to Israel’s blockade of aid bound for Gaza.
Following the weekend’s attacks, the Israeli Air Force is on high alert for potential missile and drone strikes, and Houthi retaliation risks inflaming regional tensions.
Ansah Allah leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi vowed to target US vessels in the Red Sea indefinitely, framing the conflict as a broader confrontation with "American and Israeli aggression".
The Trump Administration said its attacks on Houthis were because of its Iran-backed strikes against maritime vessels using the Red Sea.
US President Donald Trump said the strikes were necessary to protect "freedom of navigation," while Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth pledged an "unrelenting" campaign until Houthi attacks ceased.
The Houthis have already claimed retaliatory strikes against the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier group, although missiles and drones fired by Houthis were intercepted and destroyed by US forces.
While Washington insists its operations will re-secure ocean freight through the Red Sea, the Houthis have said they intend to "confront escalation with escalation", suggesting continued risks to commercial and naval traffic.
Ansar Allah has explicitly linked its maritime strategy to Israel’s actions in Gaza, threatening further disruption unless aid restrictions are lifted.
The strikes mark a significant intensification of US military involvement in Yemen, and the Trump Administration has warned Iran it will be held "fully accountable" for its military support of the Houthis.
Regional analysts fear a cycle of retaliation could draw Tehran deeper into the conflict, destabilising a region already grappling with the fallout from Gaza’s unresolved ceasefire.
For now, the immediate focus remains on whether the Houthis follow through on threats to Israeli-linked shipping and how Washington’s "overwhelming lethal force" could potentially lead to a deterioration of the Red Sea situation.
