The ongoing Houthi rebel attacks on ships in the Red Sea region, which have persisted over the past 15 months, will not immediately cease following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Ambrey intelligence analyst for the Middle East, Daniel Muller, told Seatrade Maritime News this week that the Houthi attacks on shipping were closely linked to the war in Gaza as a means of targeting assets linked to Israel and its allies. However, he cautioned that it remained unclear when the attacks would end, while there was also the looming risk of a return to civil war in Yemen.
The potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas will take effect from January 19 once the terms have been agreed to by both parties.
“It is assessed highly unlikely the Israel Defence Forces would withdraw from the Gaza Strip straight away. Therefore, it is assessed as unlikely that a ceasefire would immediately result in the Houthi ceasing attacks on merchant shipping. Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” Muller said.
The details of the ceasefire agreement have not been officially announced. However, media reports indicate that it will take effect in three stages, starting with a full ceasefire for six weeks, the release of some of the hostages, and the withdrawal of Israel’s armed forces from populated areas of Gaza.
Stage two will involve the release of the remaining Israeli hostages as well as Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and a complete withdrawal of Israel’s troops from Gaza. Stage three will see the reconstruction of Gaza, which has been destroyed by Israeli strikes since October 2023.
“Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” said Muller.
This could mean that the threat to shipping will remain until the end of stage two of the peace process.
Additionally, the political volatility in Yemen could also lead to the Houthis targeting vessels in the region.
“A resurgence of the Yemeni Civil War remains possible, which could lead to a change in intent, targeting coalition shipping instead of Israel-affiliated vessels. The US is reportedly attempting to garner the intelligence support of Saudi Arabia and the Internationally Recognised Government of Yemen to increase the effectiveness of US airstrikes against the Houthi,” Muller said.
He added that the return of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa would be gradual.
