In the midst of anticipation surrounding South Africa's election on Wednesday, independent political analyst Dr Ongama Mtimka predicts the African National Congress (ANC) will opt for coalitions with smaller parties to keep the upper hand.
Speaking at the annual Road Freight Association (RFA) conference in Hermanus in the Western Cape over the weekend, Mtimka said there was no scenario where the ANC would not walk away victorious from the polls this week, but indicated it was highly unlike they would get more than 50% of the vote.
“My team and I surveyed more than 20 analysts and at least 67% agree we will see a coalition come Wednesday. There are around 33% of analyst that still think the ANC will get an outright majority above 50%,” he said.
Mtimka stated that he anticipated a coalition for the ANC involving some of the smaller, less controversial parties in the country. "In my assessment, the ANC is likely to secure a victory with a vote share ranging from 43 to 45%, positioning them as the most preferred partner in forming a coalition. Who might they approach for these coalitions? It's probable they'll reach out to the smaller parties, as they are less likely to demand significant policy shifts from the ANC and would prioritise maintaining continuity moving forward."
When asked to specify which parties the ANC might target, he mentioned the UDM, the IFP, and Rise as top contenders.
"I believe that by June 1, we'll likely hear that the ANC is engaging in earnest discussions with the smaller parties for a coalition, rather than pursuing the alternative path we've heard about, such as forming a government of national unity with the EFF or DA."
Mtimka emphasised that the ANC was fully aware of the strategic decisions it's making. "One aspect often underestimated about the ANC is its adeptness in managing internal tensions. Throughout the democratic era, the party has navigated the balancing act between different factions, finding a middle ground in policies between the left and business interests. The ANC remains cognisant of both domestic and foreign markets, making a sudden shift towards a government of national unity unlikely."
However, regardless of the election outcome, Mtimka asserted that South Africa did not need to fear doomsday scenarios. "None of the scenarios paint a doomsday picture. These political players have fiercely debated policies, even when they held a two-thirds majority and could sway policy significantly. It's improbable that they'll suddenly become one-dimensional in managing tensions with a reduced majority."
He dismissed notions of the ANC losing the election as far-fetched, asserting that such a scenario wasn’t plausible at this stage.
