While there appears to be some reprieve for shippers as ocean freight rates edge lower – it will be some time before they normalise.According to multinational financial services company Rabobank, there was relief when ocean freight rates started to soften around the globe, but they warn that rates are expected to remain elevated for some time due to structural factors.In a recent report, the bank highlighted that these included heightened inf lation and all-time low consumer confidence, imbalanced global trade f lows removing container capacity from network circulation, and geopolitical uncertainties bringing increased risks to the sector. Another factor impacting the higher rates was growing operational costs from energy and sustainability regulations.The company said while spot rates had recovered from the irrational levels seen in the fourth quarter of 2021, rates remained three to five times above pre-pandemic levels. At the same time contract rates had also risen significantly and were expected to remain elevated.Container shipping trades out of Asia are also expected to continue to be slow throughout the second half of this year. This comes as the global economy continues to contract. Demand is not expected to improve but rather continue to weaken.At the same time congestion at key ports is expected to persist well into 2023, while carrier schedule reliability, even though it’s improving, remains problematic. Carriers have also started to address capacity, and blank sailings have increased.
