The current radically
uncertain political
environment – where civil
unrest is expected to rise –
is putting business under
tremendous pressure.
“Processes such as
Nedlac have been under
severe strain for some time
and really do not work
optimally anymore,” said Dr
Mzukisi Qobo, an associate
professor at the University of
Johannesburg.
And with black business
separating itself from the
likes of Business Unity South
Africa, there are deep cracks
in the business world.
He believes there are
several scenarios for South
Africa each with its own set
of consequences.
“We can no longer predict
which of these will play out
but only highlight the three
most likely to occur.”
He said the first scenario
was one where Cyril
Ramaphosa took over
the ANC in 2019, driving
political and economic
change and increasing
efforts to clean up
government and grow the
economy.
“The wild card in this
scenario is that new factions
arise and exert inf luence
over him and shackle the
economic policy direction.
This is a systemic problem
in the ANC,” he said.
“The narrative that if only
Ramaphosa
could take
over and fix
this whole
thing has been
strengthening,
but the reality
is that it might
not happen.
We had deep
problems
in South
Africa long
before Zuma
took over –
including labour market
rigidity, high unemployment
and rising ineqality.”
A second scenario is that
Zuma retains power and
hands over the reins to his
former wife Dr Nkosazana
Dlamini Zuma resulting in
a further fall in GDP and
f lat business confidence.
“The wild card in this
scenario is that she could
very well turn out to be an
independent leader who
drives her own agenda.”
According to Qobo, the
third possible scenario for
South Africa is what he calls
new centre left politics.
“The tensions in the
country are stronger and
far sharper than when
President Mbeki was booted
out. The
battles are
going to be
bruising
and intense.
There are
already signs
of discontent
in the NEC
and many are
predicting a
new splinter
group out of
the December
conference.
This scenario sees the losers
in the December breakaway
come together and bring
about their own party to try
to stabilise South Africa.”
Qobo said this would
see a realignment of an
opposition party in the
country with a possible
coalition government as its
goal.
“The wild card is of course
continuing instability and
increased industrial action
as impatience over service
delivery and fractious
politics increases.”
Qobo said there were
no certain realities and no
magic bullets.
“Whichever scenario
takes place the economy
faces some structural
challenges that have to be
addressed,” he said.
These include labour
market rigidities and
growing politicisation of
unions, weak business
confidence, unemployment
and high levels of
inequality.
“And then there is the
long road of negotiating the
downgrade recovery.”
Qobo said it was
imperative for business to
reduce the trust deficit with
government and for them to
find each other as equals.
“Business is also going to
have to listen – you cannot
be dismissive or sweepingly
critical. In this climate of
anti-white political capital,
elements such as equity and
transformation are going
to become very important
and you are going to have
to examine yourselves very
intently to see how you can
contribute to a changing
environment.”
It is imperative for
business to reduce
the trust deficit with
government and find
each other as equals.
– Dr Mzukisi Qobo
