‘Nervous uncertainty’ over Trumpworld and Africa

Nervous uncertainty
appears to be the general
sentiment of political
commentators on the
impact of a Trump
presidency on Africa and
South Africa.
“Any sweeping
statements at present
would be premature,”
said Goolam Ballim,
chief economist of the
Standard Bank. “He has
been liable to say things (in
his pre-election dialogue)
which are not likely to
be entrenched in future
policy.”
Even the notion that he
is going to be “completely
dismissive or embracing”,
Ballim added, was again
“premature”.
But he is of the firm
opinion that Africa cannot
be ignored in the new
president’s foreign policy.
“Africa will remain an area
of growing importance
because the continent is
unavoidable,” Ballim said.
“And it will not exclusively
be developed markets in
his government’s foreign
policy.
“America, while the
world’s largest economy
and military power, has
shrunk in its geopolitical
and economic status in this
continent.
“Africa is America’s
to lose, and many
multinational companies
in the US are well aware of
this continent’s strategic
and economic importance.”
American national,
Professor John Stremlau
of the Department of
International Relations
at Wits University, said
Trump had given little clue
about his likely approach
to the continent
“We know that he’s
said nothing about
Africa, and about African
Americans he’s been pretty
derogatory.” But that,
Stremlau added, meant
little when considering
just what policy line his
government would follow
on African affairs.
However, Stremlau
hinted at the fact that
the Republican party
hadn’t been particularly
supportive of SA and
Africa. And, following this,
the Trump government
might take a harder stance
in its African affairs
policy.
Part of that, he added,
meant that the African
Growth and Opportunity
Act (Agoa) – which allows
imports from approved
African states duty-, taxand
quota-free entry to the
massive US market – was
at risk, even though the
current Agoa is only due
for review in 2025.
“But here again I’m
uncertain,” Stremlau said,
“because at this stage, I
haven’t a clue who’s going
to be at the African desk
in foreign affairs.”
The American Chamber
of Business (AmCham)
South Africa, approached
for comment by FTW
deputy editor Adele
Mackenzie, was equally in
the dark about just where
Trumpworld would head
on its stance on African
policy.
“He does have a
rather jaded view about
Africa, and it’s up to us
to convince him and his
advisers that Africa is the
last available continent
for business expansion
and business opportunity.
He is a businessman and
could be excited about this,
but we have to package
and sell the idea,” said
Amcham.
“In terms of US
investments, we hope that
he will respect the trade
instruments that are in
place as these all serve a
purpose. Business is a twoway
street and if both the
US and SA benefit then it
would not make sense to
avoid US investment into
Africa.”
The SA government has
been more or less silent
up to now about the US
election. But a hint of its
attitude may be contained
in an SAnews.gov.za report
released to FTW.
According to the
portfolio committee on
international relations
and cooperation, the
president-elect, Donald
Trump, “should continue
deepening aid and increase
trade relations with Africa.
“The … US needs the
world and the world needs
the US for stability and
a prosperous future,”
said acting committee
chairman Bheki Radebe.