After last week’s news that South Africa’s citrus exports had hit record volumes, with 146 million cartons of fruit exported, there’s more good news on the horizon for the industry.
Industry affairs manager at the Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA), Paul Hardman, has updated the organisation’s long-term model which is used to predict export volumes of the various citrus commodities over the next 15 years.
According to the CGA, using a number of variables (including tree census data, budwood sales, orchard replacement and removal, yields, packout percentages, expansion potential and planting densities), the model has tracked actual volumes very closely in the past.
It is said to be more accurate in the short term (years one to ten), and less so in years eleven to fifteen.
It predicts a slightly higher volume for 2021 (148.8 million 15 Kg cartons), increasing to 194 million cartons by 2025, with 260 million predicted in the next ten years.
“The actual performance will however largely depend on the ability of government and industry to improve efficiencies in the logistics chain, and gain, retain and optimise market access,” according to a CGA statement.
