Moderate growth predicted for 2011

While the outlook for growth in trade with Africa is inextricably linked to the fortunes of the continent's global trading partners, expectations are generally positive. “We see both Government and private investment in Africa becoming stronger as levels of confidence slowly return to world markets and this, together with the strengthening of several African economies, is likely to result in trade volumes continuing to grow in 2010 and 2011,” says Safmarine Africa region executive Jonathan Horn. There are however question marks around the continued rate of recovery of the world economy – adding to uncertainty for African trade into 2011. “The export drivers in most African economies are commodity based, and this depends on demand from the industrialised economies. China and India are likely to be engines of growth for many of the emerging economies of Africa via increased commodity exports – and if growth in China slows, this will certainly have an impact on trade levels.” From an import perspective, Horn predicts moderate growth slightly ahead of GDP for the year ahead. “While full economic recovery and economic growth expectations are extremely difficult to predict, our expectation for growth in overall trade to and from the region in 2011 is moderate.”