Moderate growth predicted for 2011

While the outlook for growth in trade with
Africa is inextricably linked to the fortunes of the
continent's global trading partners, expectations
are generally positive.
“We see both Government and private
investment in Africa becoming stronger as levels
of confidence slowly return to world markets and
this, together with the strengthening of several
African economies, is likely to result in trade
volumes continuing to grow in 2010 and 2011,”
says Safmarine Africa region executive Jonathan
Horn.
There are however question marks around the
continued rate of recovery of the world economy –
adding to uncertainty for African trade into 2011.
“The export drivers in most African economies
are commodity based, and this depends on demand
from the industrialised economies. China and
India are likely to be engines of growth for many
of the emerging economies of Africa via increased
commodity exports – and if growth in China slows,
this will certainly have an impact on trade levels.”
From an import perspective, Horn predicts
moderate growth slightly ahead of GDP for the
year ahead. “While full economic recovery and
economic growth expectations are extremely
difficult to predict, our expectation for growth
in overall trade to and from the region in 2011 is
moderate.”