Long-term airfreight rates are now expected to increase by 5% to 15% this year, reversing earlier forecasts of a decline, as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global air cargo capacity.
Market intelligence provider Xeneta said it had revised its 2026 outlook after the escalation of the conflict on February 28 removed an estimated 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight, tightening the market and pushing rates higher.
The company had forecast in December that long-term shipper rates would fall by 5% to 10% during 2026 but now expects rates to rise instead.
Global air cargo rates, combining spot and long-term contracts, increased 17% year on year during the first half of 2026 as demand outpaced capacity growth. Demand had risen 4% over the period, while supply had increased by just 1%, Xeneta said.
"On February 27, I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%. Yet that is what happened, with global spot rates up around 40% year on year in May," said Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw.
He said spot rates had since stabilised but remained elevated, while demand continued to prove more resilient than expected.
Xeneta expects demand growth to moderate during the second half of the year as capacity gradually recovers, although the market remains vulnerable to further geopolitical disruption.
Van de Wouw said the Middle East conflict had demonstrated the resilience of airfreight during supply chain disruptions.
"Missile attacks closed major air hubs across the Middle East overnight in what is the most significant, sudden shock to airfreight capacity in living memory," he said.
He added that the initial disruption earlier this year highlighted airfreight's ability to restore capacity far more quickly than ocean shipping following major geopolitical shocks.
Xeneta also identified diverging demand trends within the market. Shipments linked to artificial intelligence, including semiconductors and hardware, continue to drive cargo demand, while e-commerce volumes have weakened following regulatory changes affecting low-value imports into the European Union and softer exports from China.
