Industry views new Zim deal with cautious optimism

If the power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe holds even in the short-term – and that’s still a big if, according to all our commentators – there should be an almost immediate upward impact on SA freight and trade. “But,” according to Barney Curtis, executive officer of the Federation of Southern African Road Transport Associations (Fesarta), “nothing significant.” “Some restrictions are likely to be removed,” he told FTW, “and a bit of extra aid and investment, once the powersharing is in place. “But people are going to be wary, and not jump in boots and all.” You’ve got to be pretty sure of things before you make a move, according to Robbie Forbes, MD of Transit Freight Co-ordinators (TFC) – a major in reefer (refrigerated) and general cargo road haulage between SA and the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) member countries. “As long as you have confidence in that (powersharing) arrangement, you’ll get investment and get production going again in Zimbabwe,” he said. “There will also be the input of the necessary infrastructure for this development into Zimbabwe, and – with more production as a result – that would mean more road transport moving both north and south.” It’s a development we’ve all been waiting for, according to Martin Keck, MD of independent consolidator CFR Freight. “Zimbabwe was, until not that long ago, SA’s biggest African trading partner,” he said, “and that means a lot of ties that just need to be revived for cargo to start running again.” He felt that this would initially be mostly from SA into Zimbabwe, but once tobacco crops and other traditional industries there start to re-develop, it would once again revert to good two-way trade. “If there are the right signs, you will also see foreign investment and cargoes from elsewhere – like China – coming in,” Keck added. “And, remember, that foreign cargo traditionally comes in through the Port of Durban, and needs to be transported north by road.” Duncan Bonnett, Africa trade specialist at consultants Liz Whitehouse & Associates, felt that the position was still very uncertain. “We don't know how effective the new shared government structure will be,” he told FTW. “And, although the deal has been widely acclaimed in the sub-Saharan region, the likes of the UK, Europe and the US have remained silent.” Bonnett added that he had seen little commentary from there offering praise for “the new unity government”, and certainly no increases in funding. “I think the donors will play a wait-and-see game, as that power-sharing agreement is paper-thin, and delay until they see if the unity firms.” He also pointed to the fact that there had been no change in the Zimbabwe government allowing aid services into that country. “I think the donors will take a circumspect attitude, and I don’t think the unity government will see a flood of investment or donor aid,” Bonnett said.