After a 1.1% contraction in 2020, real GDP growth in West Africa is projected at around 2.1% this year. According to the World Bank, this forecast is already higher than it was in October last year and could improve even more in the months ahead. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated it expects growth to be far higher and closer to 5% during 2021.“There are considerable differences in prospects between countries in the region, however,” said a World Bank spokesman. “Nigeria’s muted growth prospects and slow vaccine rollout will weigh on the sub-regional outlook as well.”This comes despite higher oil prices. Nigeria and other oil exporters in the region are expected to face a slower recovery compared to some of the other countries in the region where economic activity is expected to expand at a more robust pace. Exclude Nigeria and West African prospects surge, with a growth forecast closer to 3.1%. Metal exporting and non-resource-rich countries in particular are driving the recover y. The World Bank expects mining production to rise across metals exporters, as mines reopen in some countries and production picks up in others. Guinea and Niger in particular are expected to experience solid recoveries in this regard. Other countries, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, and Togo are also expected to see robust recovery thanks to a rebound in private consumption and private investment following the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions. The IMF earlier this year undertook a regional visit to West Africa and found the region was facing some severe challenges from a triple crisis impacting health, the economy and security. Whilst the spread of Covid-19 has been at a relatively slower pace and with a lower fatality rate on average when compared to other sub-Saharan African countries, the pandemic has taken its toll and economic activity decelerated sharply last year. We st A f r ic a will be bolstered by the fact that dozens of companies are actively exploring the region, especially for gold, as these reserves are generally very shallow in the area which means it can be mined easily and at a relatively low cost. In 2018, the region had more than 60 gold mines producing or under construction and hundreds of projects in the economic assessment and exploration stage. Whilst this activity did slow down last year, it is starting to pick up quite extensively. Experts also place much hope on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which has the potential to enhance intra-Africa trade f lows. This agreement is key to solving the trade imbalance long faced by West Africa. Under the AfCFTA, West Africa is also expected to see the biggest decline in the number of people living in extreme poverty – a decline of 12 million (more than a third of the total for all of Africa) is projected. Several Western African countries could also see real economic gain, with Cote d'Ivoire, where trade costs are amongst the highest, expected to see the biggest gain of any country on the continent, increasing its income by at least 14%.
