A new threat assessment by maritime security firm Ambrey has warned that vessels affiliated with Israel remain at high risk in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while US, UK and allied-affiliated shipping could also face escalating danger if their states launch military action against the Houthis or Iran.
According to the threat report, Ambrey said it assessed Israel-affiliated vessels to remain at high risk.
“There is a realistic possibility that US, UK, and allied-affiliated vessels may face heightened risk during transit if their states participate in military action against the Houthis or Iran.”
Ambrey noted that the last attempted Houthi attack against a merchant vessel had occurred on December 26, 2024, but that the threat environment remained volatile, especially following the Houthis' declaration of a blockade against the Israeli port of Haifa on May 19.
While no attacks have been claimed since late last year, Ambrey said the relative calm was likely due to “the reality that no Israel-owned or -flagged vessels transit the area”.
The report outlined a detailed timeline of geopolitical flashpoints, including resumed hostilities in Gaza, the re-emergence of US and UK military action in Yemen, and rising tensions with Iran. Analysts said such escalations could again make merchant shipping a target.
“Israeli military strikes against Iran have made a resumption of targeting US and UK assets in the Red Sea a higher likelihood,” Ambrey warned.
“This means that the risk could significantly deteriorate while en route.”
The report noted that “US merchant ships” and “UK-flagged bulk carriers” have transited the area since early May without incident, and that “UK-flagged vessels have also transited unhindered”.
However, the risk remained fluid due to “active and ongoing Israel-Hamas and Israel-Iran conflicts”.
To mitigate risks, Ambrey has advised operators to conduct thorough affiliation checks and avoid transiting the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden if there is any affiliation with Israel. Vessels linked to states likely to participate in strikes on Iran should “limit aggregate risk exposure”.
Shipping with EU affiliation is advised to coordinate with the European Union Naval Force’s (EU NAVFOR) Operation Aspides.
Where targeting is a realistic possibility, Ambrey recommended close protection services and tailored ship security assessments, including private armed security teams and bridge support with unarmed advisors.
“Ambrey continues to adjust these [affiliation checks] as per the developing intent and threat. The situation is dynamic, and the threat to merchant vessels could escalate rapidly depending on political and military developments,” the report noted.
